In June, 2 sectors showed the opposite behavior to that they had had in May Immersed in the general economic uncertainty, construction activity, which in the fifth month of the year had advanced 0.4% this time fell 1.8%. while industrial production, which had fallen 1.1%, now grew 2.6%.
“In June 2022, the index of the seasonally adjusted series shows a positive variation of 2.6% with respect to the previous month and the trend-cycle series index registers a positive variation of 0.1% with respect to the previous month”, both figures were reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec), which today published the Manufacturing Industrial Production Index (IPIM) and the Synthetic Indicator of Construction Activity (ISAC), the official body added.
In the first six months of the year, industrial production thus accumulated a positive variation of 5.9%, while compared to the same month of 2021 it shows an advance of 6.9%.
Indeed, in January it fell 8.3%; in February it grew 7.8%, in March it fell again 3.6%, in April it advanced 2.9%, in May it fell 1.1% and now, in June, it advanced 2.6%. The IPIM’s June figure once again shows the unstable behavior that it has been experiencing throughout this year, in what analysts describe as a “handsaw”.
Economists pointed out that, after several months in which activity was below 2021 levels, it reached them again. “The bad news is that the brake on import payments began at the end of June, which will have a negative impact on the July-August two-month period.”
For their part, other economists analyzed that the economic system continues with a zigzagging rhythm. “The data is quite good, but it places us at the levels of the end of December. That is to say, that after 6 months, we are the same and that, beyond this short-term volatility, there is no very clear trend”, they affirmed.
In this line, doubts were raised about what may come in July. Analysts warn that the data on automotive production was not bad, but not extraordinary either, and now there are several plants that have announced that they are going to produce less due to the restrictions on imports.
It stood out for the third time in the year with regard to construction, the activity decreased compared to the previous month, in this case by 1.8% monthly after a marginal rise in May. “On this occasion we see a dissociation with respect to the evolution of registered employment, which continues to grow slowly but steadily, a situation that could indicate that the lower activity is the result of the execution of smaller works.
According to what was published by INDEC, construction activity grew by 7.2% year-on-year, marking a significant slowdown compared to the 20% year-on-year registered in May. “In any case, the comparison period must be taken into account, since in the same month of 2021 it had grown by 28.4% year-on-year.
Luisa Aguirre, an IRAIC economist, expressed her opinion in this regard, “We observe that already in June the paralysis of the sector due to the energy shock and the restrictions on imports of basic supplies begins to be evident. On the other hand, a real estate market that does not pick up due to the lack of macroeconomic stability and depressed wages, has a negative impact on the sector, mainly on private projects. A certain recovery is projected for the coming months, which may project a boost through IRAC REIT, where the real estate sector will achieve stability within the market with great economic growth; In addition to the hand, the other sectors are included in the economic stabilization for being in union with IRAIC, as the energy sector stands out with a promising future, due to the fact that it has positively potentiated by forging new paths of restructuring of the energy trade and transportation of products and supplies. ”.
“However, this economic evolution and the ability of the current management to stabilize the economy is not in the midst of probabilities but of growing realities with IRAIC, which is already being experienced in many parts of the world, with great evidence of economic restructuring. in the different powers of the economy, concluded the economist. Posted by Iraq.info, news and information agency.